Immigration and Refugee Law
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Across 25 years of published Federal Court immigration decisions, applicants won about 4 in 10 cases decided on the merits: 8,163 of 20,203, or 40.4%. Pax Law Corporation reviewed 22,057 published decisions of the Federal Court of Canada on judicial reviews of immigration refusals and on mandamus applications for delayed files, from February 2001 to November 2026. The rate stayed within a narrow band every year, but it changed a great deal from one type of decision to another.
These are court-wide figures drawn from the Court’s own published decisions. They are not Pax Law Corporation’s results, and they do not predict the outcome of any case. Every case turns on its own facts and evidence.
You can also see the interactive charts in the statistics section near the bottom of our homepage.
We read the full text of every published Federal Court decision with reasons on an immigration matter released between February 1, 2001 and November 6, 2026, as listed in the Court’s official decisions database. We kept two kinds of cases:
That left 22,057 decisions: 20,987 judicial reviews of refusals and 363 mandamus decisions (some decisions involve both). We excluded Federal Court of Appeal decisions and 652 cases in which the Minister challenged a decision that had gone in the individual’s favour.
Judicial review is how a person asks the Federal Court to review an immigration decision. Under section 72 of the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act (IRPA), the person must first obtain leave, which is the Court’s permission to proceed. The application for leave must be filed within 15 days for a matter arising in Canada, or 60 days for a matter arising outside Canada, after the person is notified of the decision or otherwise becomes aware of it. A judge may extend that time only for special reasons. No appeal lies from a decision on leave.
If the Court finds the decision unreasonable or unfair, it usually sets the decision aside and sends it back to be decided again, with the benefit of the Court’s reasons. The Court generally does not grant the visa or status itself. Since Canada (Minister of Citizenship and Immigration) v. Vavilov, 2019 SCC 65, reasonableness is the presumptive standard the Court applies when reviewing these decisions.
Mandamus is a court order directing a public official to perform a legal duty, such as deciding an application. The conditions come from Apotex Inc. v. Canada (Attorney General), [1994] 1 FC 742 (FCA), affirmed by the Supreme Court of Canada. For delay, the Court also looks at the factors in Conille v. Canada (Minister of Citizenship and Immigration), [1999] 2 FC 33: whether the delay is longer than the nature of the process requires, whether the applicant is responsible for it, and whether the authority has given a satisfactory explanation. Learn more on our mandamus service page and our judicial review page.
Of the published decisions decided on the merits, 8,163 went in the applicant’s favour and 12,040 did not, an overall rate of 40.4%. The yearly rate never fell below 37.6% (2025) or rose above 44.6% (2022). In other words, the overall picture has been remarkably stable for a quarter of a century, even as the number of decisions grew in recent years.
We counted a result in the applicant’s favour when the Court allowed the application, set the decision aside, sent it back, or granted mandamus. We counted it against the applicant when the application was dismissed. Stays of removal, procedural orders and partial results were not counted either way.
Across all years, the share of published judicial review decisions decided in the applicant’s favour varied widely by the type of decision under review:
A higher percentage does not mean a refusal of that type is easy to overturn. For example, only a small number of visitor visa judicial reviews ever reach a published decision with reasons; most end earlier. The figures describe published decisions, not every case filed.
The review found 363 published mandamus decisions about processing delays. They were rare for most of the period, but rose sharply in recent years: 46 in 2025 and 45 in 2026 up to November 6. Of the 275 mandamus decisions decided on the merits, 123 granted mandamus.
Most mandamus cases never produce a published decision. Often the government decides the application after the case is filed, and the case ends without a judgment. That is why these numbers show only part of the picture.
For these reasons, the percentages in this article are statistics about published decisions. They are not the success rate of all applications for judicial review, and they are not a prediction for any individual case.
Samin Mortazavi, an Iranian Canadian lawyer and the founder of Pax Law Corporation, has represented applicants in 92 published Federal Court immigration decisions since 2019. In this review of decisions since 2001, that number places him among the 25 lawyers with the most such decisions.
This number counts published decisions only. It is not a measure of results, and it does not predict the outcome of any case. You can read more about him on his profile page and see recent decisions on our court decisions page.
The figures are refreshed every month as the Court publishes new decisions.
In this review, 40.4% of published decisions decided on the merits went in the applicant’s favour (8,163 of 20,203) between 2001 and 2026. This is a statistic about published decisions, not about every application filed.
No. Court-wide statistics cannot predict any individual case. The result depends on the decision, the reasons, the evidence and the law that applies to your facts.
The figures only show published decisions. Few visitor visa cases reach a published decision with reasons, and the types of issues raised differ between categories. The percentages should not be read as the ease of overturning a refusal.
It is a Federal Court process to review whether an immigration decision was reasonable and fair. You need the Court’s permission, called leave, before the case can go ahead.
Under IRPA section 72, 15 days for a matter arising in Canada and 60 days for a matter arising outside Canada, after you are notified of the decision or otherwise become aware of it. A judge may extend the time only for special reasons.
Usually not directly. The Court normally sets the decision aside and sends it back to be decided again.
It is a court order that directs the government to decide a file it has delayed unreasonably. The Court applies the conditions from Apotex and, for delay, the factors from Conille.
The number of published mandamus decisions rose sharply in 2025 and 2026. Many more mandamus cases are filed than are decided, because the government often decides the file after the case starts.
From published Federal Court decisions with reasons listed in the Court’s official decisions database, read in full text through an open legal data collection.
Every month, as the Court publishes new decisions.
No. They are court-wide figures. The only firm-related figure is the number of published decisions in which our founder represented applicants, which counts decisions, not results.
Only if the judge certifies a serious question of general importance under IRPA section 74(d). No appeal lies from a decision on leave.
If you received an immigration refusal or your application has been delayed for a long time, a lawyer can review your situation with you.
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This article describes publicly available Federal Court decisions with reasons only. Past results, including court-wide statistics, do not predict or guarantee the outcome of any case, and outcomes vary according to the facts of each individual case. This article is general information only and is not legal advice. Source: Federal Court decisions database, decisions dated February 1, 2001 to November 6, 2026, reviewed November 8, 2026; 2001 and 2026 are partial years. Analysis by Pax Law Corporation.
Pax Law Corporation reviewed 22,057 published Federal Court decisions from February 2001 to November 2026. Samin Mortazavi appears as counsel for the applicant in 92 published decisions since 2019.
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